Seattle's October revenue forecast adds just $8.8 million. The amendment wish list is already bigger

Seattle's last revenue forecast before the budget vote came in only slightly better than expected, and its real estate tax estimate fell again. For residents, that small number sets the ceiling on what councilmembers can add back to Mayor Katie Wilson's proposed budget without cutting something else.

The city's Economic and Revenue Forecast Council met on Oct. 16 to take up the October 2026 forecast from the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts. Across 2026 through 2028, it projects about $8.8 million more than the proposed budget assumed, CivicTide reported. Budget Chair Dan Strauss (District 6) called it a "bad forecast," The Urbanist reported, and said the Council is "being asked to do more with less."

What the forecast says

From the forecast office's own presentation:

• Sales tax is up, partly because the state widened what is taxed. Total sales tax obligations grew 11.6 percent year over year in the first seven months of 2026. Information and professional services contributed about 8 points of that, which the office attributes to the expanded tax base under the state's ESSB 5814.
• Real estate excise tax (REET) keeps falling short. The 2026-2028 REET forecast was cut by $19.5 million. That follows downward revisions of $23 million in August and $10.8 million in April.
• The payroll expense tax (JumpStart) is a risk. The office says the forecast relies on expected stock prices and hiring at the city's largest employers, and that strong stock performance is offsetting some effects of lower job numbers. It calls the uncertainty around future stock prices a "significant risk."
• The regional job outlook is weak. Regional employment is not expected to grow past its pre-pandemic level until 2028. In the office's pessimistic scenario, the region would lose about 58,000 jobs, roughly 3.2 percent, between mid-2026 and late 2027, and recover them by the end of 2029. General Fund revenue would be about 3.7 percent lower in that scenario.

Two notes in the forecast tie directly to decisions the Council and voters are making now:

• The proposed budget would extend the payroll tax's health care exemption, which the office says would lower JumpStart revenue by $5.7 million in 2027 and $5.8 million in 2028. That extension still needs Council approval, so the forecast is based on current law.
• The transportation benefit district sales tax ends April 1, 2027. If renewed at 0.3 percent, it would bring in about $94 million in 2027 and $125.4 million in 2028. That renewal is Seattle Proposition 1 on the Nov. 3 ballot, which we explained in Prop. 1 on your ballot.

What our records add

$8.8 million is small next to the requests already announced. In the past week alone, councilmembers have publicly asked for more than that amount:

• Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck (Position 8) is seeking $8 million for gender-based violence services, according to a Council release.
• Councilmember Maritza Rivera (District 4) has proposed $418,000 for a national gun violence strategy team, per a Council release.
• Councilmember Dionne Foster (Position 9) will propose a one-time $1 million for the City Attorney's case backlog, The Urbanist reported.

The starting point was already tight. The Council's Central Staff balancing analysis, presented at the Oct. 13 Select Budget Committee (agenda item), found the mayor's plan still has an underlying gap of about $23 million in 2027 that is covered with one-time money.

The forecast council is a small body. It has four members, and Strauss chaired it in 2025, PubliCola reported at the time. Its adopted forecasts are the revenue numbers the budget is built on.

What's next

Councilmembers present their proposed changes on Oct. 27, Oct. 28 and Oct. 29. Any addition above the forecast's small gain would need an offsetting cut or new revenue. The public hearing is Nov. 5 and the final vote is scheduled for Nov. 20, according to the Select Budget Committee schedule.